Brett's Blog

It seems very likely with the bullseye being over Topeka, KS, and Kansas City, KS/MO today!

Check out this image to see for yourself!

Let alone, here’s the nerd talk:

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

   EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT AND
   ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
   CO RIVER VALLEY OF SRN NV/CA.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST MID
   LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ACROSS NRN
   NM BEFORE SHIFTING INTO KS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ENHANCING SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD
   OF FRONTAL ZONE.  PRIOR TO THIS DEVELOPMENT...AN EARLY MORNING MCS
   WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
   LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY
   ENHANCE ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT ACROSS IA AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BECOMES DRAPED ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO SRN NEB WHERE IT SHOULD
   INTERSECT SURGING COLD FRONT.  NAM IS A BIT FARTHER SE WITH COLD
   FRONTAL POSITION OVER KS AT 00Z THAN GFS AND THIS SEEMS MORE
   REASONABLE GIVEN THE AIRMASS OVER THE NRN PLAINS ATTM.

   LATEST THINKING IS AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS OVER THE MID MS
   VALLEY...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROVE CONVECTIVE-FREE OVER THE CNTRL
   PLAINS AS SFC PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED PRIOR TO MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
   VERY STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
   SCNTRL KS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE
   WELL INTO THE MID 90S.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG NERN
   PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WHERE PARCEL RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
   MAXIMIZED ALONG ZONE OF STRONG CONVERGENCE.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL KS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC
   LOW THEN TRACK/DEVELOP NEWD INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG.  GIVEN THE APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...UPDRAFTS SHOULD ORGANIZE QUICKLY WITH SUPERCELLS
   THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE.  VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY MANY
   OF THESE STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CAPE.
   ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NERN KS INTO
   SERN NEB/NWRN MO ALONG DECAYING OUTFLOW WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST SFC-3KM HELICITY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 300 M2/S2 OVER THIS
   REGION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE MDT RISK REGION...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INCREASES INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING HOURS.  SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN KS/NEB
   INTO IA/NRN MO DURING THE LATE EVENING...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC
   LOW.  ONE OR MORE MCS-TYPE COMPLEXES SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID MS
   VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS MCS MATURES.

 

In a nutshell, expect the storms after mid-day to begin to pop. Most will be producing heavy rain, lots of large hail and a few tornadoes (long lived maybe?).

If only I had a laptop, wireless card, and a streaming camera to go out and about in Kansas today! I’m expecting a wild ride!